随着中国推出股指期货的时间日益临近，期货经纪公司的业务有可能得到提振。股指期货这种衍生金融产品或许会对中国股市大盘起到降温作用。
WITH THE introduction of stock-index futures -- derivatives products that may cool down the broader Chinese stock market -- looking ever more imminent, there are several companies in one sector whose fortunes could be helped: futures brokerages.

中国期货经纪公司的业务以往主要限于从事大豆和铜等实物性商品的国内期货交易，而股指期货推出后的相关交易业务势必将增加这些公司的收入。人们初步预计，股指期货推出后的3年内期货行业每年由此获得的佣金收入将超过人民币30亿元，约合4.05亿美元。
Such trading houses, whose main business has been limited to handling local trading of futures on physical commodities like soybeans and copper, stand to see a boost in revenue from the resulting trading activity that stock-index futures would bring. By at least one prediction, the futures industry could take in more than three billion yuan, or about $405 million, in commissions annually within three years.

虽然中国监管当局承诺推出股指期货已有1年左右时间，但由于官员们一直在忙于制定实施细则并解决前期存在的各种问题，致使这一期货产品迟迟未能推出。分析师们说，现在终于有迹象显示中国的股指期货最早下月初就会推出。
Chinese regulators have been promising the advent of stock-index futures for about a year, but the plan has been delayed as officials hash out details and work through concerns. Now, analysts say there are signs the indexes may be introduced to China's market as early as next month.

股指期货是一种投资者基于其对某一股票指数未来某一时间所处点位的判断而买卖的期货合约，比如说如果他们预计上证综合指数未来将会下跌，就可以通过股指期货来对冲股市下跌的风险。该指数在过去两年中已上涨了近4倍，上周五收于5315.54点。由于股指期货可以使投资者在预计股指将会下跌时进行套期保值操作，因此这一期货产品预计会受到市场的普遍欢迎，并有可能对股市大盘的上扬起到抑制作用。由于中国禁止卖空股票或进行类似交易，因此中国投资者目前无力在预计股市将会下跌时采取措施防止自己的投资缩水。
Stock-index futures are contracts that investors can buy or sell based on where they think an index will be trading at a given point in the future -- say, a bet on a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, which has nearly quintupled in value over the past two years to 5315.54 Friday. Because they let investors bet an index will fall -- an ability Chinese investors currently lack because direct short-selling and similar moves are forbidden -- the futures product is expected to be popular and could weigh on stock prices generally.

但一些分析师和业内管理人士关注的则是，股指期货的推出将在多大程度上提振期货经纪公司及其母公司的业绩，从事股指期货的买卖将使这些公司的交易范围扩大到大宗商品之外。
Yet some analysts and industry executives are focusing on how the expected activity might lift the fortunes of futures brokerages -- and their parents -- by helping them to diversify their trading scope beyond commodities.

中国期货业协会(China Futures Association)的首席顾问常清说，股指期货即将推出是个好消息，它肯定会给经纪行业带来益处。
'What's coming is a good and new product, which will certainly bring benefits for brokerages,' says Chang Qing, a chief adviser to China Futures Association.

东方证券(Orient Securities)驻上海的衍生金融产品分析师孟卓群说，以股票成交量衡量，中国股市已经是世界交投最活跃的股市之一，股指期货推出的第一年其成交额就有可能相当于中国股市市值的三分之一左右，且两年内其成交额将相当于中国股市市值的一半左右。她预计，如果股指期货成交额按照她的上述预期增长，该期货推出的3年内期货行业每年从中获得的交易佣金有可能高达人民币35亿元。
China already has one of the world's most-active stock markets by volume of shares traded, and stock-index futures trading could comprise about a third of the value of listed shares in the first year -- a figure that today would amount to turnover of about seven trillion yuan -- then grow to around half of the stock market capitalization in two years, according to Meng Zhuoqun, a financial-derivatives analyst at Orient Securities in Shanghai. She predicts that if volumes grow according to her expectations, the futures industry would earn commissions up to 3.5 billion yuan annually within three years.

孟卓群说，套期保值是设立期货市场的基本目的，因此现货市场的投资者中许多预计迟早都会投身期货交易。
'Hedging is the basic purpose of futures market,' says Ms. Meng, 'Therefore, many investors here in the cash market are likely to trade futures sooner or later.'

中国投资者基本上无法直接投资期货经纪公司，因为这类企业大多达不到中国股市对申请上市公司在盈利能力方面的要求。但中国许多上市公司拥有从事期货经纪业务的子公司，分析师们说投资者可考虑投资这类上市公司。
There is hardly a direct way for Chinese investors to invest in futures brokerages, because most companies have been unable to meet the profitability requirements of going public on China's stock exchanges. Yet, a number of listed companies own futures-brokerage subsidiaries, and analysts say those offer investment opportunities.